Goldman and Morgan Stanley just published targets a trillion dollars apart on the same company — and took half a billion in fees to do it. If you're just joining: SpaceX's public-market story has already moved past the debut pop and into valuation triage. We've tracked the share slide, the insider lock-up calendar, and a bullish Raymond James target that pushed the debate toward whether AI infrastructure forecasts can justify a valuation far above the IPO price — all while the stock trades under real pressure. This is AI IPO Watch. Today: a syndicate that can't agree with itself, $11 billion in shares about to unlock, and a stock 30% off its high. Where do we even start? This one's from The Economic Times:
Nearly 53 companies are set to see IPO lock-in expiries between July and September 2026, potentially unlocking shares worth about $11 billion, according to Nuvama. While not all eligible shares are expected to be sold, the expiries could weigh on stock prices in the near term.
Fifty-three companies, eleven billion dollars in shares coming off lock-in over the next three months. That's Nuvama's number, and that setup matters more to me than any single roadshow. And the write-up is honest about it — not all of it gets sold. But the supply becomes eligible, it's on the clock, and prices tend to sag into that window whether or not anyone hits sell. Right, and here's what the calendar tells you. It's the same mechanic showing up everywhere at once — the low-float darlings, the index-inclusion timing, the unlock windows. Fifty-three names moving through the same machine is how IPO calendars get engineered. Insiders who were told to sit still for a year get their hands untied. And the retail buyer who chased the listing pop is the one standing under it when the shares come down. The Dalal Street version, but the physics travel. Whatever the day-one narrative was, month twelve is when you find out who actually wanted to hold. Here's Editorial Team at Crypto Briefing:
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX will generate $474 billion in total revenue by 2030. Morgan Stanley pegs that figure at $330 billion. That’s a $144 billion disagreement on a four-year outlook. The core of the disagreement sits squarely on AI. Goldman attributes $322 billion of its 2030 revenue estimate to AI operations, while Morgan Stanley sees that segment contributing $190 billion.
I told you the quiet period was the event. It ends, the notes drop, and Goldman and Morgan Stanley — the two lead underwriters, the ones who sold this thing — land a trillion dollars apart by 2040. Near term, it's already ugly: Goldman says $474 billion in revenue by 2030, Morgan Stanley says $330. That's a $144 billion gap on a four-year call from the two banks who co-priced the deal. And the whole gap is one word. Goldman puts $322 billion of that 2030 number on AI, Morgan Stanley says $190. Strip the AI line out and these two basically agree on the rocket company. So the syndicate wasn't really arguing about SpaceX. They were arguing about how much of a bet on artificial intelligence they were willing to print under their own logo. Which tells you what they actually sold. When your two anchor banks can't agree on the single biggest revenue line, the valuation is leaning hard on market mood. Australian Financial Review, with Anthony Macdonald:
We know the investment banks love SpaceX – it is the world’s biggest float – and we found out overnight just how much. For their $US500 million ($722 million) or so in underwriting fees, SpaceX’s big bagful of brokers has absolutely piled on the love.
Five hundred million dollars in fees. And what did Wall Street deliver for that check? A trillion-dollar disagreement about what the company's actually worth. Right — and we just heard the Crypto Briefing version of that gap. The AFR is putting the price tag on it. Chanticleer calls it a groupthink masterclass, which is generous, because groupthink implies they at least agreed on something. That's the part I love. It's the biggest float in stock market history, so the fee pool is the biggest ever — and the syndicate used it to pile on love in a dozen directions at once. You pay half a billion for conviction and you get a range you could drive a Falcon Heavy through. Here's the thing though — the banks didn't get paid to be right. They got paid to place the shares and write the coverage. The disagreement is a feature. Every desk gets to publish the number that sells to its book. This one's from The Motley Fool:
SpaceX is currently worth more than $2 trillion but generated only $4.69 billion in first-quarter sales. Assuming SpaceX maintains that quarterly revenue rate for the entire year, the stock is easily looking at a price-to-sales ratio above 100.
Here it is. Down more than 30% from the highs, still sitting at $148 — above the $135 IPO price. That's the whole story in two numbers. The 52-week range tells it cleaner: opened up near $225, floor at $145. Anyone who bought the open is underwater. The company that priced at $135? Fine. Musk? Fine. The issuer executed. And now Motley Fool's asking, “should you buy right now” — with a stock that's down a third and a price-to-sales ratio north of 100. Two-trillion-dollar market cap on $4.69 billion of quarterly sales. A $4.28 billion net loss in the quarter, and consumer financial media is framing the drop as an entry point. The bid was the pop, and the pop went to whoever sold into it. And this lands right after the lock-up piece we just hit — $11 billion queued to unlock over three months. So the aftermarket's already soft, and there's supply coming. That's the calendar working exactly as designed. Have a take on the next AI market debut, a story idea, or a correction? Send it our way at aiipowatch at lantern podcasts dot com. We read every note.
What we’re watching next: IPO lock-in expirations across 53 companies through September, and the supply test for about $11 billion in newly eligible shares. We’ll also be watching SpaceX’s multi-year Alphabet AI infrastructure deal, scheduled to begin in October, as a checkpoint on contracted revenue conversion.
Links to every story we covered today are in the show notes, if you want to dig further. That’s AI IPO Watch for today. This is a Lantern Podcast.