WEBVTT

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<v Cassidy>For <00:00:00.307>weeks, <00:00:00.740>the <00:00:00.837>infrastructure <00:00:01.440>story <00:00:01.860>has <00:00:01.984>only <00:00:02.304>gone <00:00:02.620>one <00:00:02.880>way — <00:00:03.829>bigger.

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<v Cassidy>Today, <00:00:05.940>New <00:00:06.048>York <00:00:06.290>finally <00:00:06.704>said <00:00:07.056>stop.

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<v Cassidy>This <00:00:08.456>is <00:00:08.696>AI <00:00:09.016>Daily <00:00:09.336>Briefing.

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<v Cassidy>A <00:00:10.611>statewide <00:00:11.136>pause <00:00:11.883>a <00:00:11.963>billion-dollar <00:00:12.543>compute <00:00:13.011>deal <00:00:13.235>with <00:00:13.403>a <00:00:13.496>European <00:00:13.976>supplier <00:00:14.483>not <00:00:14.757>enough <00:00:14.997>people <00:00:15.243>are <00:00:15.420>asking <00:00:15.830>about

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<v Cassidy>and <00:00:16.763>a <00:00:16.867>math <00:00:17.173>conjecture <00:00:17.715>that <00:00:17.908>supposedly <00:00:18.627>fell <00:00:18.936>to <00:00:19.139>ChatGPT.

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<v Cassidy>Bill, <00:00:21.216>where <00:00:21.310>do <00:00:21.416>we <00:00:21.590>start?

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<v Cassidy>Here's <00:00:23.053>Bruce <00:00:23.400>Gil <00:00:23.667>at <00:00:23.780>Gizmodo:

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<v Quote>Gov.

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<v Quote>Kathy <00:00:25.561>Hochul <00:00:26.023>signed <00:00:26.324>an <00:00:26.433>executive <00:00:26.990>order <00:00:27.310>on <00:00:27.477>Tuesday <00:00:27.959>establishing <00:00:28.777>a <00:00:28.913>temporary <00:00:29.477>moratorium <00:00:30.457>on <00:00:30.647>certain <00:00:30.917>new <00:00:31.161>data <00:00:31.467>centers <00:00:31.849>that <00:00:32.027>consume <00:00:32.537>50 <00:00:32.917>megawatts

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<v Quote>or <00:00:33.737>more <00:00:34.084>of <00:00:34.204>power. <00:00:35.117>The <00:00:35.241>move <00:00:35.537>makes <00:00:35.777>New <00:00:35.961>York <00:00:36.257>the <00:00:36.430>first <00:00:36.737>state <00:00:36.990>in <00:00:37.117>the <00:00:37.237>country <00:00:37.684>to <00:00:37.794>impose <00:00:38.217>a <00:00:38.345>statewide <00:00:38.837>moratorium <00:00:39.710>on <00:00:39.884>large <00:00:40.265>data <00:00:40.503>center <00:00:40.848>projects.

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<v Bill>Hochul <00:00:42.352>signed <00:00:42.679>it <00:00:42.856>Tuesday — <00:00:43.906>a <00:00:44.050>hard <00:00:44.373>pause <00:00:44.786>on <00:00:45.008>anything <00:00:45.556>pulling <00:00:45.986>50 <00:00:46.366>megawatts <00:00:46.999>or <00:00:47.170>more, <00:00:48.046>new <00:00:48.317>builds <00:00:48.946>and <00:00:49.266>expansions.

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<v Bill>We've <00:00:51.066>spent <00:00:51.319>three <00:00:51.650>days <00:00:51.956>talking <00:00:52.366>megawatts <00:00:53.046>and <00:00:53.197>campus <00:00:53.813>price <00:00:54.242>tags, <00:00:54.986>and <00:00:55.138>here's <00:00:55.386>the <00:00:55.546>first <00:00:55.826>story <00:00:56.266>where <00:00:56.506>a <00:00:56.597>government <00:00:57.168>actually <00:00:57.762>says <00:00:58.354>stop.

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<v Cassidy>And <00:01:00.119>it's <00:01:00.346>a <00:01:00.466>pause, <00:01:01.226>not <00:01:01.386>a <00:01:01.462>permitting <00:01:01.897>slowdown.

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<v Cassidy>Every <00:01:03.453>other <00:01:03.639>state <00:01:03.926>has <00:01:04.002>been <00:01:04.119>dragging <00:01:04.586>its <00:01:04.738>feet <00:01:04.893>on <00:01:05.010>approvals — <00:01:06.086>New <00:01:06.194>York <00:01:06.426>put <00:01:06.626>a <00:01:06.738>wall <00:01:06.973>up <00:01:07.246>and <00:01:07.474>told <00:01:07.686>the <00:01:07.782>Department <00:01:08.213>of <00:01:08.375>Public <00:01:08.596>Service <00:01:08.973>to <00:01:09.079>spend <00:01:09.386>a <00:01:09.490>year

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<v Cassidy>studying <00:01:10.279>it. <00:01:11.328>So <00:01:11.386>instead <00:01:11.719>of <00:01:11.858>just <00:01:12.043>asking <00:01:12.416>whether <00:01:12.674>this <00:01:12.919>hurts <00:01:13.206>the <00:01:13.319>build-out, <00:01:14.366>ask <00:01:14.586>who <00:01:14.759>benefits <00:01:15.213>on <00:01:15.286>the <00:01:15.446>map.

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<v Cassidy>When <00:01:16.806>New <00:01:16.914>York <00:01:17.163>closes <00:01:17.526>the <00:01:17.650>door <00:01:17.933>on <00:01:18.066>a <00:01:18.226>50-megawatt <00:01:18.946>project, <00:01:19.858>that <00:01:20.036>project <00:01:20.439>doesn't <00:01:21.026>evaporate — <00:01:22.039>it <00:01:22.186>moves <00:01:22.413>to <00:01:22.546>a <00:01:22.666>state <00:01:22.882>that <00:01:23.013>wants <00:01:23.399>it.

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<v Bill>Which <00:01:24.519>makes <00:01:24.882>site <00:01:25.330>selection <00:01:26.106>a <00:01:26.386>regulatory-arbitrage <00:01:28.136>problem <00:01:28.726>now.

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<v Bill>If <00:01:30.086>you're <00:01:30.288>deciding <00:01:30.826>where <00:01:31.079>to <00:01:31.234>drop <00:01:31.506>a <00:01:31.646>billion <00:01:32.119>in <00:01:32.281>construction

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<v Bill>permit <00:01:33.853>chaos <00:01:34.426>and <00:01:34.617>timeline <00:01:35.282>risk <00:01:35.746>just <00:01:36.135>became <00:01:36.642>line <00:01:37.159>items — <00:01:38.166>and <00:01:38.266>New <00:01:38.450>York <00:01:38.786>just <00:01:39.154>made <00:01:39.403>itself <00:01:39.786>the <00:01:39.986>risky <00:01:40.466>bet.

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<v Cassidy>DataCenter <00:01:42.249>Dynamics, <00:01:42.930>with <00:01:43.108>Georgia <00:01:43.527>Butler:

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<v Quote>Meta <00:01:44.870>is <00:01:45.013>planning <00:01:45.350>to <00:01:45.505>more <00:01:45.729>than <00:01:45.926>double <00:01:46.377>its <00:01:46.561>data <00:01:46.851>center <00:01:47.126>campus <00:01:47.590>in <00:01:47.761>Richland <00:01:48.234>Parish, <00:01:48.929>Louisiana, <00:01:49.430>to <00:01:49.777>5GW <00:01:50.844>of <00:01:50.968>capacity.

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<v Quote>The <00:01:52.314>campus <00:01:52.710>is <00:01:52.857>set <00:01:53.004>to <00:01:53.110>be <00:01:53.281>Meta's <00:01:53.710>Hyperion <00:01:54.401>data <00:01:54.691>center <00:01:54.957>project, <00:01:55.835>previously <00:01:56.497>a <00:01:56.737>2GW <00:01:57.424>development.

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<v Quote>Meta <00:01:58.937>announced <00:01:59.364>plans <00:01:59.724>to <00:01:59.817>build <00:02:00.097>a <00:02:00.337>4 <00:02:00.627>million <00:02:01.110>sq <00:02:01.484>ft <00:02:01.897>(372,000 <00:02:03.750>sqm) <00:02:04.428>campus <00:02:05.044>known <00:02:05.404>as <00:02:05.537>Hyperion <00:02:06.337>in <00:02:06.705>Richland <00:02:07.126>Parish <00:02:07.590>in <00:02:07.761>late <00:02:08.097>2024.

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<v Bill>So <00:02:09.627>the <00:02:09.787>New <00:02:09.971>York <00:02:10.287>moratorium <00:02:11.080>we <00:02:11.251>just <00:02:11.567>hit?

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<v Bill>Same <00:02:12.675>week, <00:02:13.091>Meta <00:02:13.397>doubles <00:02:13.811>down <00:02:14.120>on <00:02:14.320>Hyperion — <00:02:15.587>5 <00:02:16.067>gigawatts, <00:02:17.187>fifty <00:02:17.667>billion <00:02:18.297>dollars <00:02:18.867>in <00:02:19.107>Richland <00:02:19.770>Parish.

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<v Bill>One <00:02:21.174>state <00:02:21.560>slams <00:02:22.007>the <00:02:22.147>door, <00:02:22.927>another <00:02:23.454>rolls <00:02:24.047>out <00:02:24.247>the <00:02:24.367>red <00:02:24.616>carpet.

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<v Cassidy>And <00:02:25.779>this <00:02:25.957>started <00:02:26.360>as <00:02:26.507>a <00:02:26.627>2-gigawatt <00:02:27.267>project.

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<v Cassidy>Now <00:02:28.520>it's <00:02:28.723>more <00:02:28.819>than <00:02:28.981>double <00:02:29.251>that, <00:02:30.051>plus <00:02:30.387>a <00:02:30.537>billion <00:02:31.080>in <00:02:31.240>local <00:02:31.555>infrastructure.

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<v Cassidy>The <00:02:33.171>clue <00:02:33.487>was <00:02:33.687>the <00:02:33.843>land: <00:02:34.819>they <00:02:34.997>quietly <00:02:35.393>bought <00:02:35.747>1,400 <00:02:36.979>more <00:02:37.187>acres <00:02:37.614>at <00:02:37.687>the <00:02:37.807>end <00:02:38.014>of <00:02:38.131>last <00:02:38.435>year <00:02:38.680>to <00:02:38.819>make <00:02:39.027>room.

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<v Bill>Right, <00:02:40.760>so <00:02:40.907>the <00:02:41.107>land <00:02:41.523>grab <00:02:41.971>came <00:02:42.296>before <00:02:42.727>the <00:02:42.836>announcement.

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<v Bill>Which <00:02:44.294>means <00:02:44.707>the <00:02:45.027>site-selection <00:02:45.987>math <00:02:46.387>was <00:02:46.687>already <00:02:47.171>done <00:02:47.484>before <00:02:47.907>anyone <00:02:48.440>in <00:02:48.616>Albany <00:02:49.107>started <00:02:49.720>drafting <00:02:50.187>a <00:02:50.334>pause.

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<v Cassidy>There's <00:02:51.768>the <00:02:51.886>geographic <00:02:52.535>arbitrage <00:02:53.245>nobody <00:02:53.628>wants <00:02:53.855>to <00:02:53.968>say <00:02:54.188>out <00:02:54.404>loud.

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<v Cassidy>Same <00:02:55.948>day <00:02:56.108>New <00:02:56.276>York <00:02:56.500>took <00:02:56.685>itself <00:02:57.068>off <00:02:57.228>the <00:02:57.415>board, <00:02:58.168>the <00:02:58.258>winning <00:02:58.535>pitch <00:02:58.895>in <00:02:59.004>Louisiana <00:02:59.568>was <00:02:59.782>pretty <00:03:00.057>simple: <00:03:01.228>yes, <00:03:01.748>you <00:03:02.028>can <00:03:02.188>build <00:03:02.452>here.

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<v Bill>Nine <00:03:03.636>buildings <00:03:04.148>phasing <00:03:04.628>in <00:03:04.818>through <00:03:05.188>2030.

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<v Bill>You <00:03:06.748>don't <00:03:07.012>plan <00:03:07.308>a <00:03:07.417>decade-long <00:03:08.135>buildout <00:03:08.668>somewhere <00:03:09.068>you <00:03:09.241>think <00:03:09.528>the <00:03:09.646>regulators <00:03:10.268>might <00:03:10.525>change <00:03:10.908>their <00:03:11.201>minds.

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<v Cassidy>Rebecca <00:03:12.868>Bellan, <00:03:13.350>writing <00:03:13.727>in <00:03:13.844>TechCrunch:

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<v Quote>Reflection <00:03:15.652>AI, <00:03:16.345>a <00:03:16.505>U.S.

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<v Quote>startup <00:03:17.225>vying <00:03:17.572>to <00:03:17.675>develop <00:03:18.089>open <00:03:18.414>models, <00:03:19.185>has <00:03:19.339>signed <00:03:19.665>a <00:03:19.845>$1 <00:03:20.115>billion <00:03:20.805>compute <00:03:21.273>deal <00:03:21.497>with <00:03:21.696>European <00:03:22.398>AI <00:03:22.708>infrastructure <00:03:23.365>company <00:03:23.885>Nebius.

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<v Quote>Nebius, <00:03:26.158>formerly <00:03:26.605>the <00:03:26.705>international <00:03:27.305>arm <00:03:27.598>of <00:03:27.745>Russian <00:03:28.073>tech <00:03:28.318>giant <00:03:28.665>Yandex, <00:03:29.561>will <00:03:29.675>provide <00:03:30.069>Reflection <00:03:30.562>access <00:03:30.958>to <00:03:31.122>Nvidia’s <00:03:31.602>latest <00:03:32.012>chips.

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<v Bill>So <00:03:32.920>Reflection <00:03:33.493>just <00:03:33.789>put <00:03:34.029>a <00:03:34.199>billion <00:03:34.609>dollars <00:03:35.082>of <00:03:35.259>compute <00:03:35.789>through <00:03:36.149>Nebius — <00:03:37.229>which, <00:03:37.562>if <00:03:37.709>you <00:03:37.861>didn't <00:03:38.117>know, <00:03:38.869>is <00:03:39.049>the <00:03:39.178>former <00:03:39.646>international <00:03:40.509>arm <00:03:40.949>of <00:03:41.149>Yandex.

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<v Bill>A <00:03:42.589>U.S. <00:03:43.109>open-model <00:03:43.739>startup, <00:03:44.389>training <00:03:45.082>on <00:03:45.248>infrastructure <00:03:46.149>with <00:03:46.529>Russian <00:03:47.029>lineage.

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<v Cassidy>And <00:03:48.677>that's <00:03:48.969>the <00:03:49.093>part <00:03:49.389>the <00:03:49.605>open-versus-closed <00:03:50.922>shouting <00:03:51.402>match <00:03:51.722>never <00:03:52.037>gets <00:03:52.336>to.

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<v Cassidy>Everyone's <00:03:53.879>arguing <00:03:54.269>about <00:03:54.509>whether <00:03:54.809>the <00:03:54.919>weights <00:03:55.289>are <00:03:55.429>public.

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<v Cassidy>Nobody's <00:03:57.006>asking <00:03:57.402>whose <00:03:57.733>data <00:03:58.023>center <00:03:58.269>the <00:03:58.433>training <00:03:58.825>actually <00:03:59.189>runs <00:03:59.589>in.

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<v Bill>Right — <00:04:01.456>it's <00:04:01.658>Nvidia's <00:04:02.218>latest <00:04:02.736>chips, <00:04:03.869>but <00:04:04.029>sitting <00:04:04.389>inside <00:04:04.909>a <00:04:05.020>European <00:04:05.651>provider <00:04:06.197>with <00:04:06.437>that <00:04:06.699>history.

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<v Bill>The <00:04:08.109>'open' <00:04:08.616>story <00:04:09.009>and <00:04:09.229>the <00:04:09.589>'where <00:04:09.957>does <00:04:10.169>the <00:04:10.299>compute <00:04:10.840>physically <00:04:11.429>live' <00:04:12.029>story <00:04:12.749>are <00:04:13.149>pulling <00:04:13.482>in <00:04:13.660>opposite <00:04:14.294>directions <00:04:15.013>here.

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<v Cassidy>And <00:04:16.256>we're <00:04:16.423>seeing <00:04:16.661>this <00:04:16.846>beyond <00:04:17.247>Reflection.

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<v Cassidy>We <00:04:18.679>flagged <00:04:19.077>Anthropic <00:04:19.629>spreading <00:04:20.053>bets <00:04:20.355>across <00:04:20.669>a <00:04:20.762>Kentucky <00:04:21.269>build <00:04:21.789>and <00:04:22.189>a <00:04:22.291>European <00:04:22.837>chip <00:04:23.096>stack <00:04:23.469>a <00:04:23.549>few <00:04:23.717>days <00:04:23.989>back — <00:04:25.069>now <00:04:25.247>Reflection's <00:04:25.949>doing <00:04:26.169>the <00:04:26.309>same

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<v Cassidy>vendor-and-geography <00:04:27.875>diversification.

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<v Cassidy>That <00:04:29.789>looks <00:04:30.005>like <00:04:30.096>an <00:04:30.202>industry <00:04:30.741>move.

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<v Bill>It's <00:04:32.109>the <00:04:32.275>second <00:04:32.619>compute <00:04:33.189>deal <00:04:33.589>in <00:04:33.829>weeks, <00:04:34.389>too — <00:04:35.461>they'd <00:04:35.717>just <00:04:35.966>locked <00:04:36.389>in <00:04:36.675>SpaceX <00:04:37.509>resources.

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<v Bill>An <00:04:39.069>$8 <00:04:39.369>billion <00:04:40.119>company <00:04:40.520>scrambling <00:04:41.082>to <00:04:41.269>nail <00:04:41.637>down <00:04:41.900>capacity <00:04:42.501>from <00:04:42.698>anyone <00:04:43.149>who'll <00:04:43.461>sell <00:04:43.642>it.

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<v Bill>That <00:04:44.749>tells <00:04:44.969>you <00:04:45.089>how <00:04:45.336>tight <00:04:45.749>supply <00:04:46.300>actually <00:04:47.002>is.

54
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<v Cassidy>And <00:04:48.275>notice <00:04:48.589>the <00:04:48.755>timing <00:04:49.069>against <00:04:49.369>the <00:04:49.449>New <00:04:49.557>York <00:04:49.789>piece <00:04:50.042>we <00:04:50.181>just <00:04:50.469>ran — <00:04:51.409>one <00:04:51.656>state <00:04:52.042>slams <00:04:52.489>the <00:04:52.629>door

55
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<v Cassidy>and <00:04:53.529>the <00:04:53.639>compute <00:04:54.053>race <00:04:54.366>routes <00:04:54.753>straight <00:04:55.139>through <00:04:55.389>a <00:04:55.491>European <00:04:56.051>provider.

56
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<v Cassidy>The <00:04:57.589>map <00:04:57.856>is <00:04:57.949>doing <00:04:58.189>the <00:04:58.376>arbitrage <00:04:58.989>for <00:04:59.173>them.

57
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<v Cassidy>From <00:05:00.736>Joseph <00:05:01.119>Howlett <00:05:01.532>at <00:05:01.690>Scientific <00:05:02.261>American:

58
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<v Quote>OpenAI <00:05:03.939>just <00:05:04.211>used <00:05:04.571>its <00:05:04.771>new <00:05:05.078>large <00:05:05.455>language <00:05:05.878>model <00:05:06.371>GPT-5.6 <00:05:08.011>Sol <00:05:08.504>to <00:05:08.811>solve <00:05:09.051>a <00:05:09.139>math <00:05:09.391>problem <00:05:09.827>that <00:05:09.960>humans <00:05:10.403>have <00:05:10.571>struggled <00:05:10.979>with <00:05:11.231>for <00:05:11.459>more <00:05:11.683>than <00:05:11.851>a

59
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<v Quote>half-century. <00:05:13.371>And <00:05:13.531>all <00:05:13.704>it <00:05:13.843>took <00:05:14.011>was <00:05:14.171>telling <00:05:14.471>the <00:05:14.575>artificial <00:05:15.066>intelligence <00:05:15.831>not <00:05:16.184>to <00:05:16.339>give <00:05:16.611>up.

60
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<v Bill>So <00:05:17.487>Scientific <00:05:18.058>American's <00:05:18.698>headline <00:05:19.436>is <00:05:20.044>ChatGPT <00:05:21.516>proved <00:05:22.076>a <00:05:22.396>50-year-old <00:05:23.436>conjecture, <00:05:24.756>and <00:05:24.916>the <00:05:25.084>prompting <00:05:25.573>secret <00:05:26.116>was — <00:05:27.219>tell <00:05:27.336>it <00:05:27.496>to <00:05:27.673>believe <00:05:28.190>in <00:05:28.346>itself.

61
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<v Bill>I <00:05:29.955>want <00:05:30.110>to <00:05:30.216>be <00:05:30.373>annoyed, <00:05:30.863>but <00:05:31.139>here's <00:05:31.635>what <00:05:31.816>makes <00:05:32.131>this <00:05:32.363>different <00:05:32.787>from <00:05:33.087>everything <00:05:33.571>else <00:05:33.816>we <00:05:33.983>hit <00:05:34.243>today: <00:05:35.403>a <00:05:35.523>proof <00:05:36.030>is <00:05:36.296>checkable.

62
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<v Bill>Domain <00:05:37.603>experts <00:05:38.209>either <00:05:38.563>verify <00:05:39.096>it <00:05:39.390>or <00:05:39.795>they <00:05:39.983>don't.

63
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<v Bill>There's <00:05:41.310>no <00:05:41.763>'beats <00:05:42.414>strong <00:05:43.023>baselines <00:05:43.923>on <00:05:44.123>our <00:05:44.323>internal <00:05:45.075>eval' <00:05:45.763>fog.

64
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<v Cassidy>Right, <00:05:47.244>and <00:05:47.396>that's <00:05:47.624>the <00:05:47.754>tension.

65
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<v Cassidy>The <00:05:49.101>output <00:05:49.506>category <00:05:50.084>is <00:05:50.300>genuinely <00:05:50.864>verifiable — <00:05:52.204>but <00:05:52.344>the <00:05:52.474>article?

66
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<v Cassidy>Three-minute <00:05:54.244>read, <00:05:54.991>byline, <00:05:55.817>no <00:05:56.164>preprint, <00:05:57.177>no <00:05:57.334>visible <00:05:57.757>methodology.

67
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<v Cassidy>When <00:05:59.644>a <00:05:59.737>claim <00:06:00.052>this <00:06:00.304>big <00:06:00.537>lands <00:06:00.836>with <00:06:01.017>no <00:06:01.177>paper <00:06:01.515>attached, <00:06:02.794>I <00:06:02.844>treat <00:06:03.064>the <00:06:03.164>write-up <00:06:03.551>as <00:06:03.660>marketing <00:06:04.204>until <00:06:04.424>the <00:06:04.548>math <00:06:04.844>community <00:06:05.250>weighs <00:06:05.631>in.

68
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<v Bill>Yeah — <00:06:07.384>the <00:06:07.497>proof <00:06:07.804>might <00:06:08.057>be <00:06:08.244>real <00:06:08.624>and <00:06:08.824>the <00:06:08.937>coverage <00:06:09.417>still <00:06:09.737>be <00:06:09.940>thin.

69
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<v Bill>Those <00:06:11.244>are <00:06:11.424>two <00:06:11.648>separate <00:06:12.061>things, <00:06:12.984>and <00:06:13.102>Scientific <00:06:13.746>American <00:06:14.294>blurred <00:06:14.692>them.

70
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<v Cassidy>And <00:06:15.890>notice <00:06:16.204>how <00:06:16.384>far <00:06:16.612>this <00:06:16.857>is <00:06:16.996>from <00:06:17.144>the <00:06:17.264>megawatt <00:06:17.814>stories <00:06:18.191>we've <00:06:18.420>been <00:06:18.564>in <00:06:18.784>all <00:06:19.044>episode.

71
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<v Cassidy>Nobody <00:06:20.684>needs <00:06:20.924>a <00:06:21.004>moratorium <00:06:21.657>to <00:06:21.804>run <00:06:21.964>a <00:06:22.052>math <00:06:22.324>proof.

72
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<v Cassidy>The <00:06:23.811>interesting <00:06:24.386>frontier <00:06:24.924>isn't <00:06:25.181>always <00:06:25.544>the <00:06:25.664>one <00:06:25.884>drawing <00:06:26.324>5 <00:06:26.544>gigawatts.

73
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<v Cassidy>Nature <00:06:28.516>Communications <00:06:29.332>writes:

74
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<v Quote>Many <00:06:31.214>systems <00:06:31.703>resist <00:06:32.158>analytical <00:06:32.656>modeling, <00:06:33.451>making <00:06:33.842>data-driven <00:06:34.394>inference <00:06:34.781>of <00:06:34.905>dynamics <00:06:35.522>important.

75
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<v Quote>Yet <00:06:36.802>data-driven <00:06:37.364>methods <00:06:37.774>can <00:06:38.002>fail <00:06:38.247>to <00:06:38.416>converge <00:06:38.967>or <00:06:39.147>generalize

76
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<v Quote>leaving <00:06:40.418>open <00:06:40.714>a <00:06:40.804>central <00:06:41.207>question: <00:06:42.322>When <00:06:42.554>can <00:06:42.731>system <00:06:43.127>behavior <00:06:43.607>be <00:06:43.764>learned <00:06:44.176>reliably <00:06:44.706>from <00:06:44.914>data

77
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<v Quote>and <00:06:45.762>when <00:06:46.007>is <00:06:46.162>such <00:06:46.398>learning <00:06:46.819>impossible?

78
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<v Quote>We <00:06:48.548>answer <00:06:48.786>this <00:06:48.967>question <00:06:49.447>using <00:06:49.794>adversarial <00:06:50.594>dynamical <00:06:51.214>systems <00:06:51.687>to <00:06:51.847>identify <00:06:52.314>the <00:06:52.487>boundary <00:06:52.954>between <00:06:53.292>accessible <00:06:53.934>and <00:06:54.176>inaccessible <00:06:54.984>regimes.

79
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<v Bill>Okay, <00:06:56.463>this <00:06:56.695>one's <00:06:56.975>a <00:06:57.101>palate <00:06:57.432>cleanser <00:06:57.988>after <00:06:58.315>all <00:06:58.535>the <00:06:58.715>megawatt <00:06:59.311>talk.

80
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<v Bill>Nature <00:07:00.639>Communications <00:07:01.635>has <00:07:01.975>a <00:07:02.095>proof <00:07:02.562>about <00:07:02.959>when <00:07:03.235>you <00:07:03.335>can <00:07:03.519>even <00:07:03.842>learn <00:07:04.215>a <00:07:04.324>system's <00:07:04.895>dynamics <00:07:05.583>from <00:07:05.855>data

81
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<v Bill>and <00:07:06.847>when <00:07:07.028>it's <00:07:07.263>provably <00:07:07.768>impossible <00:07:08.575>no <00:07:08.769>matter <00:07:09.055>how <00:07:09.402>clean <00:07:09.983>your <00:07:10.255>data <00:07:10.708>is.

82
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<v Bill>That <00:07:11.992>impossibility <00:07:12.815>half <00:07:13.242>is <00:07:13.475>the <00:07:13.615>part <00:07:14.015>I <00:07:14.159>care <00:07:14.482>about.

83
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<v Bill>They <00:07:15.751>construct <00:07:16.324>adversarial <00:07:17.205>systems <00:07:17.722>where <00:07:17.962>no <00:07:18.244>single-sequence <00:07:19.199>procedure <00:07:19.815>can <00:07:20.007>guarantee <00:07:20.726>learning — <00:07:21.733>which <00:07:21.919>is <00:07:22.046>the <00:07:22.168>mathematical <00:07:22.966>version <00:07:23.413>of <00:07:23.506>the

84
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<v Bill>failure <00:07:24.170>mode <00:07:24.506>I <00:07:24.626>hit <00:07:24.799>in <00:07:24.950>production <00:07:25.466>all <00:07:25.726>the <00:07:25.882>time.

85
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<v Bill>Sometimes <00:07:27.562>your <00:07:27.697>pipeline <00:07:28.319>is <00:07:28.538>fine, <00:07:29.426>and <00:07:29.566>the <00:07:29.695>system <00:07:30.186>still <00:07:30.686>can't <00:07:31.146>be <00:07:31.376>learned.

86
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<v Cassidy>And <00:07:32.693>it's <00:07:32.853>Koopman <00:07:33.208>operator <00:07:33.786>learning — <00:07:34.938>they <00:07:35.106>say <00:07:35.258>they <00:07:35.436>resolve <00:07:35.826>a <00:07:35.915>longstanding <00:07:36.586>open <00:07:36.966>problem <00:07:37.413>in <00:07:37.519>spectral <00:07:38.035>analysis.

87
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<v Cassidy>That's <00:07:39.546>a <00:07:39.594>real <00:07:39.853>claim <00:07:40.202>with <00:07:40.286>the <00:07:40.399>proof <00:07:40.728>attached, <00:07:42.089>which <00:07:42.159>after <00:07:42.458>this <00:07:42.634>week <00:07:42.879>is <00:07:43.051>refreshing.

88
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<v Bill>Right, <00:07:45.066>and <00:07:45.226>look <00:07:45.493>at <00:07:45.566>the <00:07:45.684>validation <00:07:46.346>targets — <00:07:47.363>oscillators, <00:07:48.646>chaotic <00:07:49.133>fluid <00:07:49.562>flow, <00:07:50.466>and <00:07:50.677>Arctic <00:07:51.306>sea <00:07:51.666>ice <00:07:52.106>forecasting.

89
00:07:53.226 --> 00:07:56.746
<v Bill>They <00:07:53.900>pulled <00:07:54.146>out <00:07:54.312>hidden <00:07:54.679>modes <00:07:55.173>of <00:07:55.306>sea <00:07:55.646>ice <00:07:56.026>decline.

90
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<v Bill>That's <00:07:57.326>the <00:07:57.455>signal <00:07:57.919>it <00:07:58.097>survives <00:07:58.714>something <00:07:59.226>real, <00:07:59.986>not <00:08:00.154>just <00:08:00.386>a <00:08:00.493>whiteboard.

91
00:08:01.478 --> 00:08:05.786
<v Cassidy>Compare <00:08:02.138>that <00:08:02.298>with <00:08:02.446>the <00:08:02.586>ChatGPT-proved-a-conjecture <00:08:04.319>headline <00:08:04.799>we <00:08:04.946>hit <00:08:05.136>earlier.

92
00:08:06.006 --> 00:08:09.946
<v Cassidy>One <00:08:06.693>of <00:08:06.773>these <00:08:06.959>comes <00:08:07.258>with <00:08:07.439>convergence <00:08:08.091>guarantees <00:08:08.766>and <00:08:08.895>certification.

93
00:08:10.106 --> 00:08:12.186
<v Cassidy>The <00:08:10.613>other <00:08:10.794>came <00:08:11.018>with <00:08:11.226>a <00:08:11.333>press <00:08:11.546>cycle.

94
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<v Cassidy>Got <00:08:13.281>thoughts <00:08:13.592>on <00:08:13.685>today’s <00:08:14.018>briefing, <00:08:14.952>an <00:08:15.138>AI <00:08:15.472>story <00:08:15.858>we <00:08:15.988>should <00:08:16.152>be <00:08:16.267>watching, <00:08:17.298>or <00:08:17.565>a <00:08:17.754>correction?

95
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<v Cassidy>Send <00:08:19.058>it <00:08:19.218>to <00:08:19.425>aidailybriefing <00:08:20.498>at <00:08:20.655>lantern <00:08:21.094>podcasts <00:08:21.865>dot <00:08:22.145>com.

96
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<v Cassidy>We <00:08:23.533>read <00:08:23.765>every <00:08:24.045>note, <00:08:24.705>and <00:08:24.797>your <00:08:24.992>input <00:08:25.365>helps <00:08:25.605>sharpen <00:08:25.925>the <00:08:26.125>show.

97
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<v Cassidy>Next <00:08:27.553>we're <00:08:27.722>watching <00:08:28.046>New <00:08:28.214>York’s <00:08:28.522>Department <00:08:28.913>of <00:08:29.012>Public <00:08:29.336>Service <00:08:29.732>review <00:08:30.033>of <00:08:30.166>data-center <00:08:30.766>environmental <00:08:31.366>impacts

98
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<v Cassidy>which <00:08:32.593>is <00:08:32.708>expected <00:08:33.233>to <00:08:33.318>take <00:08:33.486>about <00:08:33.726>a <00:08:33.846>year.

99
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<v Cassidy>You’ll <00:08:35.094>find <00:08:35.339>links <00:08:35.633>to <00:08:35.726>every <00:08:35.979>story <00:08:36.299>we <00:08:36.446>covered <00:08:36.766>today <00:08:36.993>in <00:08:37.066>the <00:08:37.174>show <00:08:37.419>notes, <00:08:37.846>so <00:08:38.059>if <00:08:38.206>one <00:08:38.372>caught <00:08:38.662>your <00:08:38.782>attention, <00:08:39.706>you <00:08:39.806>can <00:08:39.958>head <00:08:40.126>there <00:08:40.353>to <00:08:40.454>read <00:08:40.710>more.

100
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<v Cassidy>That’s <00:08:42.139>AI <00:08:42.459>Daily <00:08:42.766>Briefing <00:08:43.166>for <00:08:43.366>today.

101
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<v Cassidy>This <00:08:44.459>is <00:08:44.606>a <00:08:44.696>Lantern <00:08:45.146>Podcast.