Senate Pickup Watch

Paxton Puts Texas at the Center of the Senate Map

Thursday, May 28, 2026 · 11 min

Senate Pickup Watch cover art

Texas Senate race is now being treated as a tossup after Ken Paxton’s landslide over John Cornyn, giving James Talarico a real but still historic path and forcing both parties to rethink Senate majority math.

Listen

Listen to the audio episode

Read the episode transcript

Show notes

Texas Senate race is now being treated as a tossup after Ken Paxton’s landslide over John Cornyn, giving James Talarico a real but still historic path and forcing both parties to rethink Senate majority math.

In this episode

  1. Morning Digest: Paxton demolishes Cornyn in Texas — The Downballot

    Morning Digest: Paxton demolishes Cornyn in Texas SubscribeSign in # Morning Digest: Paxton demolishes Cornyn in Texas ### Senate GOP leaders are about to learn if their new Senate nominee is as toxic as they've long feared. May 27, 2026 2 1 Share Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. (Credit: Ken Paxton site) ### Leading Off #### TX-Sen Texas…

  2. Can James Talarico Actually Win Texas? — VoteHub

    # Can James Talarico Actually Win Texas? Published: 2026-05-27T13:29:23+00:00 Source: votehub.com (votehub.com) Language: en ## Story Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton handily defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in last night’s Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff. Cornyn had appeared to have a possible path to survival, but after Donald Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the election,…

  3. The Texas Senate election is a tossup — G. Elliott Morris

    The Texas Senate election is a tossup SubscribeSign in # The Texas Senate election is a tossup ### Democratic candidate James Talarico has very good shot against Ken Paxton in the Lone Star State May 27, 2026 236 15 45 Share I’m breaking my rule of not covering breaking news to write about tonight’s election results in Texas, my home state. (And hey, with a baby on the way, who knows how…

  4. Texas' Senate race was about Trump. It’s now about Maine, too — The Boston Globe

    Texas' Senate race was about Trump. It’s now about Maine, too Analysis Candidate signs, including one for Republican Senate primary candidate and current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, line the entrance to the Royal Lane Baptist Church polling location as voters cast ballots during local and primary runoff elections, including the closely watched Texas Republican Senate runoff, Tuesday in…

  5. Consensus 2026 U.S. Senate Forecast - 270toWin — 270toWin

    Consensus 2026 U.S. Senate Forecast - 270toWin # 2026 Senate Election: Consensus Forecast ##### As of April 23, 2026 The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027. This map…